In a series of significant diplomatic exchanges, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin sent each other congratulatory letters preceding Putin’s upcoming visit to Beijing. This visit, scheduled for Tuesday, follows just days after former President Donald Trump’s high-profile summit in China. Xi remarked on the strengthened bilateral ties between China and Russia, marking the 30th anniversary of their strategic partnership. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov confirmed that Putin will meet Xi on Wednesday to discuss a broad spectrum of bilateral relations, including the proposed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.
The rapid succession of visits from both US and Russian leaders to China has drawn considerable global attention, with analysts highlighting the rarity of such diplomatic engagements in the post-Cold War era. The growing relationship between China and Russia has raised alarms in Western circles, especially following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. China’s significant economic and diplomatic backing of Russia has been noted as a sustaining factor in the ongoing conflict, with Xi and Putin having met more than 40 times, a frequency surpassing Xi’s interactions with Western leaders.
Sino-Russian trade has surged to unprecedented levels since 2022, with China purchasing over a quarter of Russia’s exports. Notably, China’s acquisition of Russian crude oil has generated substantial revenue for Moscow, supporting its war efforts in Ukraine. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, Beijing has procured over $367 billion in Russian fossil fuels since the conflict began. This strategy has bolstered China’s energy security, especially critical amid disruptions in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz due to the Middle East crisis.
While Trump’s discussions with Xi last week did not prominently feature the Ukraine conflict or the Sino-Russian alliance, the dialogue mainly revolved around trade, Taiwan, and Middle Eastern tensions. Trump noted China’s agreement on the importance of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. During these talks, Xi cautioned Trump regarding Taiwan, emphasizing the risk of conflict if the issue is mishandled. Trump remained undecided on a potential multibillion-dollar US arms sale to Taiwan, a decision closely watched by Beijing, which seeks to assert control over the self-governing island.
Joseph Webster from the Atlantic Council suggested that Taiwan might be an underlying theme in the Xi-Putin meeting. Beijing may aim to secure additional fossil fuel agreements with Moscow to safeguard its energy supplies in the event of future conflicts. Expanding the Russian oil pipeline capacity to China could significantly enhance Beijing’s energy security concerning potential Taiwan-related contingencies. Meanwhile, Russia is eager for China to advance the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project, which would augment the existing network’s capacity by 50 billion cubic meters.